Selective Q3’25 Highlights

Selective hosted its Q3 earnings call yesterday. Highlights include:

• Retention was 82% for the quarter, down 4 points year-over-year and 1 point sequentially, reflecting pricing discipline, underwriting actions, and heightened competition.
• The company rolled out an updated auto rating plan with predictive modeling, tightened fleet underwriting, expanded use of Compass telematics, and promoted commercial auto self-assessments through its risk management center.
• The E&S segment reported a 76.2% combined ratio with 14% growth. Personal Lines posted a 110.1% combined ratio, with net premiums written down 6% but target mass-affluent business up 12%.
• About 15% of commercial auto premium originates from New Jersey. The state’s overall footprint declined from over 20% to roughly 16% over the past decade. Commercial auto severity trend assumptions remain at ~8.5% since 2022.
• Selective has added 14 states since 2017, entered Montana this year, and plans to enter Wyoming in 2026.
• “We expect our 2025 GAAP combined ratio to be between 97% and 98%.” — CFO Patrick Sean Brennan

Also note: Selective’s planned move from Branchville to Short Hills, scheduled for mid-2026, is sparking employee anxiety, per Glassdoor reviews.

• “Moving headquarters to Short Hills. There will be mass extinction of dedicated employees who have given everything to see Selective succeed and grow.”
• “Employees are expected to absorb increased commuting costs and much higher housing prices (Short Hills housing is about 4x more expensive than Branchville).”