California to launch nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model

California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara and public university Cal Poly Humboldt have announced the creation of a strategy group to develop the nation’s first public wildfire catastrophe model.

This initiative aims to predict future wildfire losses and support safer communities and better access to insurance coverage.

The group, chaired by Cal Poly Humboldt, will deliver recommendations by April 2025.

This project marks a unique collaboration between the Department of Insurance and California’s academic institutions, setting a benchmark for wildfire data use and enhancing wildfire safety efforts across the state.

“We can’t keep our Department and Californians in the dark ages when it comes to the use of technology and climate science. We are harnessing the power of California’s unparalleled academic institutions for a public wildfire catastrophe model that will be the first in the world. A public model will be a benchmark for my Department to help keep insurance rates fair and accurate, a reliable source of data for local governments increasing wildfire safety, and a rich educational and career-building opportunity for students and researchers.” – Commissioner Lara.

The Department of Insurance has also posted a job opening for an Insurance Model Advisor, who will play a key role in developing guidelines and reviewing the new model.

Bottom Line: California aims to be the first state to create a public wildfire catastrophe model, similar to Florida’s hurricane model, which took five years and millions of dollars to develop. The strategy group, meeting in October 2024, will address technical challenges, public benefits, and funding sources to guide the project’s implementation.